The polls still disagree on Quebec Solidaire support

Ask (on Twitter) and you shall receive!

Joseph Angolano, Mainstreet vice-president, sent me the link to the full report, so I got to update my voting intention graphs (with error bars!) before the undecided are allocated.

Voting intentions before distribution in polls completed between 7 and 10 September 2018

I’ve only included the last Mainstreet and Léger polls because those of CROP, Ipsos, and Forum were conducted before the campaign had even officially started.

You can see that all results are compatible (the error bars overlap) except for Quebec Solidaire:

Voting intentions for QS before distribution in polls completed between 7 and 10 September 2018

Indeed, none of the error bars touch the 12.5% line.

Last night, when the Léger results were announced, Too Close To Call’s Bryan Breguet pointed out that Léger and Mainstreet disagreed on voting intentions for the CAQ and for QS:

En gros Léger et Mainstreet s’entendent parfaitement sur le PLQ et le PQ, mais Léger a la CAQ 5 points plus élevé et QS 5 points plus bas. Intéressant que les différences soient entre CAQ et QS1.

He comes to that conclusion using scores after distribution. As we have seen, before distribution both polling firms agree that CAQ voting intentions lie somewhere between 27% and 31%.

In this morning’s blog post, Bryan expanded on the topic. He returned to the difference between Mainstreet’s local and province-wide polls, which he had mentioned in yesterday’s blog post:

Mainstreet et Léger en fait s’entendent parfaitement sur le PLQ et le PQ. Par contre ils ont des chiffres fort différents pour la CAQ et QS. Mainstreet a ces partis à respectivement 31% et 16% alors que Léger les a à 35% et 11%. Une différence de 4-5 points pour chaque parti. Qui dit vrai? Impossible d’y répondre pour sûr mais les sondages par comté de Mainstreet sont bien plus cohérents avec une Coalition à 35%-36% et QS à 11%. Ainsi je serais tenté de dire que Léger a possiblement raison ici. Mais il nous faudra attendre d’autres sondages (et en fait l’élection) pour en être sûr2.

If you can read French, I highly encourage you to read his blog post on the disagreement between Mainstreet’s province-wide and riding polls. To entice you to read the whole thing for yourselves, here’s the table he comments:

Résultats moyens des partis dans les 31 circonscriptions avec des sondages locaux
Source: Breguet, Bryan. “Les sondages par circonscription indiquent un raz de marée CAQ. Ont-ils raison?Too Close To Call (blog), 10 September 2018.

So let’s recap. On the one hand, province-wide Léger and Mainstreet polls disagree on QS support. On the other hand, the results of Mainstreet’s riding polls fit better with the picture painted by Léger (CAQ higher, QS lower).

Source data

You can access the spreadsheet from which the charts were generated on Google Spreadsheets.


  1. “Overall Léger and Mainstreet perfectly agree on the Liberals and the PQ, but Léger has the CAQ 5 points higher and QS 5 points lower. Interesting that the differences should be between CAQ and QS.”

    Breguet, Bryan. Tweet. @2closetocall, 11 September 2018.

  2. “Mainstreet and Léger in fact agree perfectly on the Liberals and the PQ. However, they came up with very different for the CAQ and QS. Mainstreet has these parties at respectively 31% and 16% while Léger has them at 35% and 11%. That’s a 4-5 point difference for each party. Who’s right? It’s impossible to know with full certainty but Mainstreet’s riding polls are much more consistent with CAQ at 35%-36% and QS at 11%. I’m therefore tempted to say that Léger is possibly right in this case. But we’ll need to wait for more polling (and the election, actually) to be sure.”

    Breguet, Bryan. “Nouveau sondage Léger: CAQ toujours en tête, le PQ remonte un peu.” Too Close To Call (blog), 11 September 2018.

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